Thursday, February 7, 2008

Buhl's Picks to Click (Version 2.6)

Well, I took the weekend off due to some things I had to attend to, but am climbing my way back up the charts and am now 4-5 Against the Spread. I know, I know, still not enough to win any money, but I feel good about the way things are shaping up for tonight's games as well as this weekend.

Texas @ Oklahoma (6:00 Central)
Line: Oklahoma -1.5

Seems to me that oddsmakers have fallen off the Longhorn bandwagon a bit lately with their recent struggles on the road (1-2 in Conference road games). However, this is still a very talented, if not a little young, basketball team who has the ability to beat anyone in any arena. Going further, the Sooners have really not taken advantage of what weak home court advantage they have at the Lloyd Noble Center, with all three of their Conference home games being within 3 points or less.

To the game, Blake Griffin is a really good player for the Sooners, but to this point in the season has not shown the ability to provide enough offensive spark to carry his team by himself against tough opponents. Texases guard play is phenomenal, and they also have some very talented and athletic big men to go along with solid depth. If Oklahoma's guards don't show up to play, the Longhorns could easily win this game, and may run away with it.

Prediction: Texas by 5
Who To Take: Texas +1.5

Texas Tech @ Baylor (7:00 Central)
Line: Baylor -8.5

Baylor has fallen off a bit recently, losing consecutive games to Oklahoma and Texas after their thrilling 5OT victory over Texas A&M. Baylor has a super talented backcourt that goes as much as five players deep. Everybody knows the Texas Tech story, just two days removed from the resignation of head coach Bob Knight. His son, Pat, will look to lead the Raiders into Waco in hopes of knocking off the Bears.

Trends would tell me that -8.5 is way too high of a spread for the Bears, considering their largest Conference win has been by 8 points. But, in this particular case, I will make an exception, as I expect the Red Raiders to come out flat and disinterested. However, don't be surprised if the Raiders come out with a renewed sense of energy to rise up and win this game either. I look for either a Texas Tech win, or a Baylor blowout. I think the higher likelihood is the Baylor blowout.

Prediction: Baylor by 15
Who To Take: Baylor -8.5

Colorado @ Oklahoma State (7:00 Central)
Line: Oklahoma State -9.5

I'm not really sure where this line is coming from. Is Colorado bad? Sure, but Oklahoma State isn't much better with just 1 Conference win themselves. A few ago or maybe a little more I was still very high on the Cowboys, at least as a middle of the pack team in the Big XII. But it now appears to me that the Cowboy players and fans have lost what little enthusiasm they may have had to play for (or watch) Coach Sean Sutton.

Colorado has guards who can really fill up the scoreboard on a good night, even on the road as they proven in Austin a few weeks ago. That said, Oklahoma State is clearly the more talented team. But I still question their drive at this point which makes it almost impossible for me to think they are capable of beating anyone by 10 points.

Prediction: Oklahoma State by 4
Who To Take: Colorado +9.5

Nebraska @ Kansas State (7:00 Central)
Line: Kansas State -8

The Wildcats struggled this past weekend at Missouri, jumping out to a big lead and faltering late to lose by 3. The team showed minimal interest in being in Columbia, much less playing basketball. That said, tonight the Wildcats have something to play for with the recent passing of Senior point guard Clent Stewart's mother, Vanessa.

In the latter of the two games last year, Nebraska's Alex Maric went for 41 points against the Wildcats. No such luck this time around, I'm afraid. The Wildcats have a couple guys named Michael Beasley and Bill Walker who are likely to steal the spotlight, as Maric is really the only person Nebraska has capable of guarding either with any effectiveness, and I predict he gets into early foul trouble trying to do so.

The Wildcats are a cozy 9-1 in the comfort of Bramlage Coliseum with their lone loss coming at the hands of the Oregon Ducks in overtime back in November. The Wildcats have beaten two then-Top 10 teams in Bramlage already during Conference play (#10 A&M, #2 KU) and I don't see much reason why Nebraska will fare any better. They'd better hope for another uninspired performance from the Wildcats, and even then it likely won't be enough for the Huskers to pull of the upset.

Prediction: Kansas State by 20
Who To Take: Kansas State -8

No comments: