The Future (Part I)

An interesting little segment here. We're right in the heart of the 2008 Big XII basketball championship race. But, as most know, I almost always keep one eye on the future.

So, I've decided to do a little preview of what these teams may look like next season. In Part I I'll take a look at that upper half of the Conference. I'll put it this way, there are going to be a lot of new faces in the Conference next season.

Kansas

Graduating Seniors: Russell Robinson (7 ppg, 3 rpg, 4 apg); Rodrick Stewart (3 ppg, 3 rpg); Sasha Kaun (8 ppg, 5 rpg, 1.3 bpg); Darnell Jackson (12 ppg, 7 rpg); Jeremy Case

Other Potential Departures: Brandon Rush (12 ppg, 5 rpg); Darrell Arthur (14 ppg, 6 rpg)

Key Returners: Mario Chalmers (12 ppg, 5 apg)

Incoming Recruits:
Mario Little (6'5, SG)
Travis Releford (6'5, SG)
Marcus Morris (6'8, PF)
Markieff Morris (6'9, PF)
Quintrell Thomas (6'8, PF)

Overview: The Jayhawks are losing a lot of senior leadership, particularly along the frontline. If Rush and Arthur decide to go pro as well, which is very possible, KU will have quite a fight to stay atop the Big XII Conference standings next year.

Texas

Graduating Seniors: J.D. Lewis (2 ppg); Connor Atchley (11 ppg, 5 rpg)

Other Potential Departures: D.J. Augustin (19 ppg, 6 apg)

Key Returners: A.J. Abrams (18 ppg); Damion James (13 ppg, 11 rpg)

Incoming Recruits:
J'Covan Brown (6'2, SG)

Overview: It is possible, but highly unlikely that one or two of the Longhorns decide to test the NBA waters. D.J. Augustin may be the one with the best chance, but the thinking is that he takes the T.J. Ford route and spends a couple years in Austin to make sure he's ready for the next level. If Augustin, James, and Abrams all return next season, I believe Texas will be the odds on favorite to win the Big XII next season.

Kansas State

Graduating Seniors: Blake Young (6 ppg, 3 apg); Clent Stewart (8 ppg, 3 apg)

Other Potential Departures: Michael Beasley (26 ppg, 13 rpg); Bill Walker (16 ppg, 7 rpg)

Key Returners: David Hoskins (15 ppg, 6 rpg - 2006); Jacob Pullen (10 ppg, 4 apg)

Incoming Recruits:
Jamar Samuels (6'7, SF)
Denis Clemente (6'0, PG) - University of Miami Transfer

Overview: There are a lot of question marks surrounding who will even be on the 2008-2009 version of the Kansas State Wildcats. It is possible, though unlikely, that Michael Beasley and/or Bill Walker could return for a sophomore campaign. If that were to happen, then put Kansas State right up there with Texas atop the Conference and among the early leaders for the National Championship. The more likely scenario, however, has Beasley and Walker leaving, but David Hoskins returning to fill the void as a veteran leader and major scoring presence in the post.

If that happens, the Wildcats will have plenty of backcourt firepower, and the much needed experience to still compete for the Conference title and an NCAA Tournament berth.

Texas A&M

Graduating Seniors: Dominique Kirk (8 ppg, 4 apg); Joseph Jones (11 ppg, 5 rpg)

Other Potential Departures: DeAndre Jordan (9 ppg, 6 rpg)

Key Returners: Bryan Davis (9 ppg, 5 rpg); Josh Carter (13 ppg, 4 rpg)

Incoming Recruits:
Dashan Harris (6'0, PG)
David Loubeau (6'9, PF)

Overview: Jordan is likely gone, and he combined with Joseph Jones will leave a huge void to fill along the Aggie frontline. There will still be enough talent returning to compete with the upper echelon of the Conference, but head coach Mark Turgeon is a douchebag and I'm not sure that he has what it takes to consistently win in this Conference.

Baylor

Graduating Seniors: Aaron Bruce (10 ppg); Mamadou Diene (4 ppg, 4 rpg, 2 bpg); Mark Shephard (2 ppg, 2 rpg)

Other Potential Departures: None

Key Returners: Curtis Jerrells (15 ppg, 4 apg); Henry Dugat (12 ppg, 4 rpg); Kevin Rogers (12 ppg, 8 rpg)

Incoming Recruits:
Anthony Jones (6'8, SF)
Artem Valov (6'9, PF)

Overview: In Jerrells, Dugat, Rogers, and Tweety Carter, the Bears will bring back one of the most talented corps of players in the Conference. Scott Drew has stocked the cupboard in Waco, and if this year is the coming out party for the Bears then next season could be the year when they legitimize their placement as one of the Conference's upper tier teams.

Oklahoma

Graduating Seniors: David Godbold (8 ppg); Longar Longar (13 ppg, 7 rpg)

Other Potential Departures: Blake Griffin (15 ppg, 9 rpg)

Key Returners: Tony Crocker (11 ppg, 5 rpg); Austin Johnson (9 ppg, 3 apg)

Incoming Recruits:
Willie Warren (6'3, PG)
Ray Willis (6'5, SG)
Kyle Cannon (6'8, PF)
Orlando Allen (6'10, C)
T.J. Mitchell (5'10, PG)

Overview: There's no guarantee that Blake Griffin will try and enter the NBA Draft after this season. If he returns, Oklahoma could be another very dangerous team next year with the return of Keith Clark from a season-ending injury. Willie Warren will be the elite freshman in the Big XII next season, and he will give the Sooners a virtually unstoppable scoring threat from the guard position. If combined with Blake Griffin, that would be a high-low duo that could propel the Sooners into the top four of the Conference.

Buhl's Picks to Click (Version 2.9)

Alrighty, well after Wednesday, we're finally ahead of the game with a 7-6 record Against the Spread. Today's slate features a nice collection of games, including a national television game for the Wildcats.

Texas A&M @ Missouri (12:45 Central)
Line: Texas A&M -1.5

Listen, I hate Mark Turgeon as much as the next guy. Probably even moreso. And I would love nothing more than to see him fall flat on his face in this road game. That said, this line makes zero sense to me.

Missouri is a team in flux. Stefhon Hannah yesterday became the second Tiger arrested in an incident two weeks ago at a Columbia nightclub. While the Tigers players showed up well in a victory against Kansas State, Mike Anderson Jr. and J.T. Tiller just aren't going to carry the Tigers very far. The Aggies have a much bigger, deeper, talented, and more physical team and I think they take a bite out of the falling Tigers

Prediction: Texas A&M by 10
Who To Take: Texas A&M -1.5

Texas @ Iowa State (2:30 Central)
Line: Texas -5.5

See above. The Longhorns have had some struggles in Conference play, with a couple ugly losses. And Iowa State will likely still be without a healthy Wesley Johnson.

While Hilton Coliseum is always a tough place to play, the Longhorns have some veterans to lead them against a Cyclone team that hasn't shown an ability to play with anybody since getting hammered by Kansas two weeks ago.

Prediction: Texas by 16
Who To Take: Texas -5.5

Oklahoma @ Colorado (3:00 Central)
Line: Oklahoma -4

This is an interesting game to watch play out. It's a matchup that I think the Buffaloes could easily win, especially with Longar Longar likely done for awhile for the Sooners. But, as Colorado coach Jeff Bzdelik himself said, this team doesn't have enough depth to compete for the duration of the Conference schedule.

Colorado is really a two man guard oriented team, and the bruising low post game of the Sooners should be enough to cover on the road against a Colorado team that will be lucky to win another game this year.

Prediction: Oklahoma by 8
Who To Take: Oklahoma -4

Texas Tech @ Nebraska (3:00 Central)
Line: Nebraska -5

Nebraska put up a good fight against the Wildcats on Wednesday before eventually losing by 15. If Aleks Maric would have been able to stay out of the foul trouble caused by guarding Michael Beasley, that game could have been much closer.

The Red Raiders don't possess near the offensive firepower, particularly inside, that K-State did. After playing a very competitive game in Waco on Wednesday night, Pat Knight looks for his first win as the Texas Tech head coach. This should be a very competitive game.

Prediction: Nebraska by 1
Who To Take: Texas Tech +5

Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (5:00 Central)
Line: Kansas State -11.5

This is a lot of points to give against a team with the offensive firepower of the Cowboys. But, it appears to me that this team has given up on Coach Sean Sutton, and additionally hasn't won a road game in the Big XII yet this year.

Look for a fired up, emotional, and motivated Wildcat team to show up at Bramlage after attending the funeral of Vanessa Stewart this morning. Oklahoma State has the talent to keep up with the Wildcats, but in the end I think the atmosphere and the intangibles give K-State a huge advantage.

Prediction: Kansas State by 17
Who To Take: Kansas State -11.5

Baylor @ Kansas (7:00 Central)
Line: Kansas -16.5

The Bears are on of the few teams in the Conference with the guard play to keep up with Kansas. Additionally, they have big man Kevin Rogers who can pose matchup problems, even for a team with interior depth like Kansas.

I don't expect Baylor to win this game. In fact, the chances of that happening are very slim. But, win or lose this year the Bears haven't played a Conference game with a point spread of more than 8. That leads me to believe that, even in Allen Fieldhouse, this game will end up closer than predicted.

Prediction: Kansas by 11
Who To Take: Baylor +16.5

Buhl's Picks to Click (Version 2.6)

Well, I took the weekend off due to some things I had to attend to, but am climbing my way back up the charts and am now 4-5 Against the Spread. I know, I know, still not enough to win any money, but I feel good about the way things are shaping up for tonight's games as well as this weekend.

Texas @ Oklahoma (6:00 Central)
Line: Oklahoma -1.5

Seems to me that oddsmakers have fallen off the Longhorn bandwagon a bit lately with their recent struggles on the road (1-2 in Conference road games). However, this is still a very talented, if not a little young, basketball team who has the ability to beat anyone in any arena. Going further, the Sooners have really not taken advantage of what weak home court advantage they have at the Lloyd Noble Center, with all three of their Conference home games being within 3 points or less.

To the game, Blake Griffin is a really good player for the Sooners, but to this point in the season has not shown the ability to provide enough offensive spark to carry his team by himself against tough opponents. Texases guard play is phenomenal, and they also have some very talented and athletic big men to go along with solid depth. If Oklahoma's guards don't show up to play, the Longhorns could easily win this game, and may run away with it.

Prediction: Texas by 5
Who To Take: Texas +1.5

Texas Tech @ Baylor (7:00 Central)
Line: Baylor -8.5

Baylor has fallen off a bit recently, losing consecutive games to Oklahoma and Texas after their thrilling 5OT victory over Texas A&M. Baylor has a super talented backcourt that goes as much as five players deep. Everybody knows the Texas Tech story, just two days removed from the resignation of head coach Bob Knight. His son, Pat, will look to lead the Raiders into Waco in hopes of knocking off the Bears.

Trends would tell me that -8.5 is way too high of a spread for the Bears, considering their largest Conference win has been by 8 points. But, in this particular case, I will make an exception, as I expect the Red Raiders to come out flat and disinterested. However, don't be surprised if the Raiders come out with a renewed sense of energy to rise up and win this game either. I look for either a Texas Tech win, or a Baylor blowout. I think the higher likelihood is the Baylor blowout.

Prediction: Baylor by 15
Who To Take: Baylor -8.5

Colorado @ Oklahoma State (7:00 Central)
Line: Oklahoma State -9.5

I'm not really sure where this line is coming from. Is Colorado bad? Sure, but Oklahoma State isn't much better with just 1 Conference win themselves. A few ago or maybe a little more I was still very high on the Cowboys, at least as a middle of the pack team in the Big XII. But it now appears to me that the Cowboy players and fans have lost what little enthusiasm they may have had to play for (or watch) Coach Sean Sutton.

Colorado has guards who can really fill up the scoreboard on a good night, even on the road as they proven in Austin a few weeks ago. That said, Oklahoma State is clearly the more talented team. But I still question their drive at this point which makes it almost impossible for me to think they are capable of beating anyone by 10 points.

Prediction: Oklahoma State by 4
Who To Take: Colorado +9.5

Nebraska @ Kansas State (7:00 Central)
Line: Kansas State -8

The Wildcats struggled this past weekend at Missouri, jumping out to a big lead and faltering late to lose by 3. The team showed minimal interest in being in Columbia, much less playing basketball. That said, tonight the Wildcats have something to play for with the recent passing of Senior point guard Clent Stewart's mother, Vanessa.

In the latter of the two games last year, Nebraska's Alex Maric went for 41 points against the Wildcats. No such luck this time around, I'm afraid. The Wildcats have a couple guys named Michael Beasley and Bill Walker who are likely to steal the spotlight, as Maric is really the only person Nebraska has capable of guarding either with any effectiveness, and I predict he gets into early foul trouble trying to do so.

The Wildcats are a cozy 9-1 in the comfort of Bramlage Coliseum with their lone loss coming at the hands of the Oregon Ducks in overtime back in November. The Wildcats have beaten two then-Top 10 teams in Bramlage already during Conference play (#10 A&M, #2 KU) and I don't see much reason why Nebraska will fare any better. They'd better hope for another uninspired performance from the Wildcats, and even then it likely won't be enough for the Huskers to pull of the upset.

Prediction: Kansas State by 20
Who To Take: Kansas State -8