Buhl's Picks To Click (Version 1.30)

First off, my apologies to anyone who used my picks as a reference for any type of action on Saturday. If you did, then you, like myself, lost a bit of money. Overall in the Big XII Conference, I went 2-4 against the spread and 4-2 straight up. Not very good, but I'm looking for a major improvement tonight.

So, let's rundown the night's Big XII Conference action, saving the best for last, of course:

Nebraska @ Missouri (7:00 Central)
Line: Missouri -4.5

If you're looking at this from the outside, it appears as a classic trap game. Common sense would tell you that there is no way in hell that Missouri can win this game without 5 players, including 3 starters (Stefhon Hannah, Marshall Brown, Leo Lyons) and their top two bench players (Jason Horton, Darryl Butterfield). Yet still, someone in Vegas thinks Missouri will still win this game handily. Perhaps it has something to do with Nebraska's winless record on the road this year.

I disagree, however. I feel that without any semblance of depth in the frontcourt or the backcourt, Missouri will try and make this a half court basketball game. That falls straight into the hands of Nebraska and star big man Aleks Maric. If Demare Carroll can't stay out of foul trouble, it will be a very long night for the Tigers.

Prediction: Nebraska by 8
Who To Take: Nebraska +4.5

Texas @ Texas A&M (8:00 Central)
Line: Texas A&M -3.5

This is another that I have a very hard time going along with. Texas A&M is in a tailspin, aided only by a narrow victory at equally hapless Oklahoma State. Texas has had some struggles of late, but already has some big wins away from Austin including over a top 10 Tennessee team. They seem to have righted the ship a bit over a struggling Red Raider team coached by Bob Knight.

The crowd should be fired up for this one, and rivalry games are typically close. I expect this one to be no exception. But, just as I thought heading into A&M's matchup with Kansas State, they simply lack the playmaking ability and scoring power to win close games. Texas, on the other hand, has arguably the top guards in the Conference in D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams.

Prediction: Texas by 4
Who To Take: Texas +3.5

THE MAIN EVENT
Kansas @ Kansas State (7:00 Central)
Line: Kansas -7

Without question this will be the biggest game played between the two teams in some time. Arguably, since the 1988 Elite Eight game featuring Danny Manning for the Jayhawks and Mitch Richmond for the Wildcats. For the first time in recent memory, both teams are ranked. The Jayhawks #2, and the Wildcats #22.

Everybody knows the history. The Wildcats haven't beaten the Jayhawks in Manhattan since the early 80s, and never has K-State won a Sunflower Showdown in Fred Bramlage Coliseum. Then again, never before has K-State boasted the likely Conference Player of the Year, potential National Player of the Year, and almost certain first pick in a future NBA Draft. They do this year with Michael Beasley, the man who fans have come to love for his play on the court, as well as the way he has fully embraced being a Wildcat off it. Add to him another likely NBA Lottery pick in Bill Walker and a set of dynamic young players, and there has perhaps not been a more talented Wildcat team in the history of "The Streak."

Kansas State's guard play will be crucial. Kansas possesses extreme athleticism in the backcourt, and thrives off of turnovers and poor passes by their opponents. It will be vital for Clent Stewart, Jacob Pullen, and Blake Young to play well. They won't necessarily need to score in bunches, but they will need to handle the ball with care, make smart decisions, and make open jump shots when the defense collpases on Beasley and Walker. And when they do miss shots, it will be of the utmost importance that they get in solid defensive position to prevent the fast break opportunities on which the Jayhawks live.

Matchups are the theme of the game. No one player has the ability to guard Michael Beasley, and the same could even be said for Bill Walker. Likewise, the Wildcats will have serious matchup problems with Brandon Rush, who has come into his own as an outside shooter of late. The Jayhawks have a host of big men to throw at Beasley and Walker. While none possess the talent, the sheer numbers are such that it will be imperitive that Beasley and Walker avoid foul trouble. Perhaps so single key is as crucial as that.

As I stated above, rivalry games tend to be very close. I expect this one to be no different. If the Wildcats can avoid turnovers and foul trouble, they have more than enough firepower to pull off the upset. The key will be remaining focused and composed, and to avoid the emotion of the big game that would be natural in front of a raucous sold out crowd. There are still many unknowns with this young Wildcat team, but one thing we do know is that they will put up one hell of a fight.

Kansas wins games by "forcing" their opponent to beat themselves. If K-State can keep from beating themselves, they can win this game. But, the Jayhawks are arguably the nation's top team for a reason. And believe me, this Wildcat fan will be more than happy to step up here and eat some crow tomorrow!

Prediction: Kansas by 3
Who To Take: Kansas State +7