Monday, November 5, 2007

Going Bowling?

Well, it's that time of year again. Teams are fighting for their respective postseason lives. As we all know, it gets really tense when teams are on the bowl "bubble," looking to not only make themselves bowl eligible, but also looking to make themselves more attractive to bowl committees around the country.

Let's step back and take a look at the Big XII bowl picture and how it may unfold. First, we have to know which bowls are available to Big XII teams. There are technically nine, but only eight will select a team. They are as follows (in order of selection):

BCS
Cotton
Holiday
Gator
Alamo
Sun (if Gator does not select a Big XII team)
Insight
Independence
Texas

It is possible for the Big XII to get two teams into the BCS, especially with there now being five BCS bowl games. If that happens, the Big XII could be looking at 9 available bowl slots, if not then it will likely just be the 8 listed above.

Now then, let's take a look at the teams with a chance at becoming bowl eligible, their remaining schedules, and their chances of not only making bowls, but what bowls they will make:

Kansas, 9-0 (5-0)
The remaining schedule: @ Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Missouri (@KC)
Predicted finish: 10-1 (7-1)
Thoughts: I've been calling Kansas a fraud all year, and while they still haven't played a top 25 team, they have been able to show up every week and play good football. I only see them losing to a superior Missouri team, leaving them likely out of the Big XII Championship game and playing in San Diego.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: Holiday

Oklahoma, 8-1 (4-1)
The remaining schedule: Baylor, @ Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Predicted finish: 11-1 (7-1)
Thoughts: They should win every remaining game. Potential stumbling blocks are obviously the last two games of the season. That said, I see the Sooners running the table at this point and also winning the Big XII Championship game. The possibility also exists that by running the table they could play for a National Championship.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: BCS/MNC Game

Missouri, 8-1 (4-1)
The remaining schedule:
Texas A&M, @ Kansas State, Kansas (@KC)
Predicted finish: 11-1 (7-1)
Thoughts: Missouri is a real wildcard here. They are likely favored in all three of their remaining games, but they could easily lose any one of those games. Regardless, at this point in time, I think Missouri runs the table setting up a rematch with Oklahoma. That, again, will likely result in a Sooner victory.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: Cotton

Texas, 8-2 (4-2)
The remaining schedule:
Texas Tech, @ Texas A&M
Predicted finish: 9-3 (5-3)
Thoughts: I think the Longhorns will lose one of their remaining two games. For the sake of argument, I'll pick the Red Raiders to upset the Longhorns especially with the drama that is occurring in College Station. This would again leave the Longhorns sitting at home during the Big XII Championship game and waiting for the bowl selection shows. Forunately for them, I have heard the Gator Bowl really covets the Horns, and would jump at a chance to grab them after not having a Big XII team in last year's game.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: Gator

Texas Tech, 7-3 (3-3)
The remaining schedule:
@ Texas, Oklahoma
Predicted finish: 8-4 (4-4)
Thoughts: An even split against the Longhorns and Sooners would be a very nice way to end the season for Mike Leach and his team. Did it seem to anyone else like their record was worse than this? They played in the Insight Bowl last season, and that is not a likely destination for them regardless of their finish.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: Alamo

Texas A&M, 6-4 (3-3)
The remaining schedule:
@ Missouri, Texas
Predicted finish: 6-6 (3-5)
Thoughts: Considering the recent news of head coach Dennis Franchione getting the axe, I see no reason to think the Aggies will be able to win either of their remaining two games. They will be likely underdogs in both games, perhaps by double digits. A 6-6 Aggie team with a losing Conference record and no head coach won't be very attractive to potential bowl committee members.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: Staying Home

Oklahoma State, 5-4 (3-2)
The remaining schedule:
Kansas, @ Baylor, @ Oklahoma
Predicted finish: 6-6 (4-4)
Thoughts: The Baylor game looms large, because if they aren't able to knock off unbeaten Kansas at home this weekend, it will likely be their last legitimate shot at bowl eligibility. The Bedlam game is Oklahoma is always competitive, but Oklahoma will have too much riding on that home game for the Cowboys to expect anything less than their best effort. The Cowboys finish the season with an even record, and are a bit uneasy as they watch the bowl selection shows.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: Texas

Kansas State, 5-4 (3-3)
The remaining schedule:
@ Nebraska, Missouri, @ Fresno State
Predicted finish: 7-5 (4-4)
Thoughts: Last weekends loss to Iowa State knocked the Cats a few rungs down on the bowl ladder, but it isn't something that they can't overcome. Realistically, K-State should be favored in two of their remaining three games. Nebraska and Fresno State will both be very difficult games to win, but the Cats have been impressive coming off of losses this season as they likely will be in both of these matchups. After going to the Texas Bowl last season, K-State takes a step up.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: Insight

Colorado, 5-5 (3-3)
The remaining schedule: @ Iowa State, Nebraska
Predicted finish: 6-6 (4-4)
Thoughts: Both of the remaining games for the Buffaloes could become trap games. Iowa State has been playing pretty good football the past three weeks, and Nebraska could have new life if an interim coach is named in the bye week after the K-State game. While either game could potentially be a loss, I see the Buffaloes winning on the road and losing at home.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: Independence

Nebraska, 4-6 (1-5)
The remaining schedule: Kansas State, @ Colorado
Predicted finish: 5-7 (2-6)
Thoughts: They've got to win one game, right? I mean, they are Nebraska! I don't see any way the Huskers win the two games necessary to become bowl eligible. They will be underdogs in both of their remaining contests, and their only chance to win either is if they come out with a renewed energy. I honestly don't see it happening with Bill Callahan still at the helm. Now, if they were to find an interim coach, then they may be able to pull some kind of energy for the Colorado game. Maybe.
Buhl's Bowl Pick: Staying Home

Keep in mind that these predictions are as of this week. With any luck, I should be able to make this a weekly feature up until the end of the season. Should be fun. Keep checking back.

No comments: